The chances to commercialize a new technology successfully lie at the intersection of three main different categories of uncertainties.
Source: IDEO
The goal of entrepreneurs is to identify all the “unknown unknowns” and try to overcome them.
This is particularly important since investors (and companies) evaluate also these factors while deciding to invest time and/or money in your project.
Being able to name the sources of uncertainties and recognize which are the biggest ones is, therefore, part of the fundamental skillset that any Deep-Tech entrepreneur must develop.
How important is it to properly understand the main sources of uncertainties to then act to overcome them?
Let’s play with some numbers: suppose that you have a 50% chance to get every uncertainty cleared during your entrepreneurial process. Which are the chances of creating a truly Innovative product or service?
$$ P(Success)= uncertainty_1 * uncertainty_2 * ... * uncertainty_n $$
| Sources of uncertainty (at 50% chances of getting it) | Probability of Success |
|---|---|
| 3 | 12,5% (or 1 out of 8) |
| 5 | 3,13% (or 1 out of 32) |
| 7 | 0,78% (or 1 out of 128) |
| 10 (as currently identified) | 0,1% (or 1 out of 1024) |
Investors know these numbers, thus is better to present yourself prepared in order to convince them to invest in your project anyway!
Startup Resources section of Deep-Tech 4 Dummies are here to facilitate the process (😉) but you need to put a lot of effort into learning stuff outside your usual comfort zone!